South Africa’s political landscape was thrown into turmoil this week as the Patriotic Alliance (PA) issued a stark ultimatum to the African National Congress (ANC), threatening to abandon the ruling party and form a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA). This dramatic move, triggered by the suspension of PA member Kenny Kunene, strikes at the heart of the fragile Government of National Unity (GNU) and threatens to destabilize the national government just months after its formation. The ensuing political crisis underscores the volatile nature of coalition politics in South Africa and raises fundamental questions about the future of the ANC’s hold on power.
The immediate flashpoint was the suspension of Kenny Kunene from his role as a Member of the Mayoral Committee (MMC) in Johannesburg. The PA, led by its outspoken leader Gayton McKenzie, has framed Kunene’s removal as an act of political sabotage by the ANC within the Johannesburg council. In response, McKenzie has drawn a line in the sand, demanding Kunene’s immediate reinstatement and warning of severe consequences if the ANC fails to comply. This intra-coalition dispute in Johannesburg has rapidly escalated into a national emergency, exposing the deep-seated tensions and fragile trust that characterize the current political arrangements.
The Ultimatum: A Direct Challenge to ANC Authority
Gayton McKenzie, known for his blunt and confrontational style, did not mince words when he publicly declared that the PA’s continued support for the ANC, both in Johannesburg and at a national level, is conditional upon Kenny Kunene’s return to his position. This demand places the ANC in a precarious position. Acceding to the PA’s ultimatum would be seen as a significant capitulation, weakening the party’s authority and setting a dangerous precedent for other coalition partners to make similar demands.
“We will form a coalition with the DA,” McKenzie stated unequivocally, according to a report from IOL, sending shockwaves through the political establishment.
This threat is particularly potent given the PA’s kingmaker status in several key municipalities and its small but critical share of seats in the national parliament. The statement signals a readiness to realign entirely, a move that would fundamentally reshape South Africa’s political map and potentially hand the opposition DA a significant victory. The ANC now faces an almost impossible choice between maintaining its pride and authority versus ensuring the stability of the governments it leads. The Kunene issue has become a proxy for a larger power struggle, highlighting the immense difficulty the once-dominant ANC faces in managing a political environment where it can no longer govern alone.
Confirming the Threat: The PA’s Intent to Withdraw from the GNU
Adding concrete weight to McKenzie’s warnings, the PA has officially confirmed its intention to withdraw from the Government of National Unity. This step moves the crisis from rhetorical threats to actionable political realignment. The GNU, formed after the 2024 general elections failed to produce an outright winner, was always an uneasy alliance of ideological opposites, held together by a shared desire to maintain stability and block radical factions from gaining influence.
As eNCA reported, “The PA confirms intention to withdraw from GNU,” a stark confirmation that sets in motion a process that could lead to a vote of no confidence in the president.
The PA’s departure would critically wound this arrangement, stripping the ANC-DA led bloc of its parliamentary majority and plunging the country into a period of profound uncertainty. It would force the ANC and DA to scramble for alternative partners to maintain a governing majority. Potential allies could include smaller parties, but any new arrangement would be even more unstable and fraught with compromise. Alternatively, it could open the door for a coalition between the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a prospect that alarms investors and centrist voters alike.
The implications of this political realignment extend far beyond parliamentary maneuvering. As this situation continues to develop, analysts at African News Desk are closely monitoring how the market volatility and investor confidence are being affected by the instability. The DA, on the other hand, would be presented with an opportunity to lead a new opposition bloc, potentially including the PA, aimed at toppling the ANC-led government.
This crisis is more than a simple dispute over a single political appointment; it is a symptom of a deeper political realignment in South Africa. The era of single-party dominance is over, replaced by a complex and fractious system of coalition governments. The ANC’s inability to secure an outright majority in the last election was a historic moment, and the current turmoil demonstrates that the party has not yet fully adapted to its new reality. The power now wielded by smaller parties like the PA is disproportionate to their national support, giving them leverage to dictate terms on critical issues of state.
The timing of this crisis could not be worse for South Africa, which faces mounting economic challenges, persistent unemployment, and ongoing service delivery issues. A protracted political battle in Parliament could divert attention and resources from addressing these pressing national concerns. The uncertainty surrounding the government’s stability may also deter much-needed foreign investment and undermine economic recovery efforts.
As the deadline for the ANC’s response looms, the nation watches and waits. The stability of the South African government hangs in the balance. The outcome of this high-stakes confrontation will not only determine the composition of the Johannesburg mayoral committee but could also redefine the political future of the entire country. The ANC’s next move will be its most critical in a generation, a test of its strategic wisdom and its ability to survive in a new, unpredictable political era where coalition politics rather than outright dominance determines the exercise of power.
The coming days will reveal whether the ANC chooses to confront the PA’s challenge head-on or seeks a negotiated settlement that preserves the fragile unity government. Either path carries significant risks for the ruling party and for the country’s political stability, making this one of the most consequential political moments in post-apartheid South Africa’s history.
